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Published on Thursday, December 06, 2012

Juniper Research says NFC growth will be slower than expected

Apple iPhone 5 is blamed

Juniper Research has revised its forecasts for the worldwide NFC market, lowering its estimates for NFC growth in North America and Western Europe.

It says Apple’s decision not to include NFC technology in its iPhone 5 has reduced the confidence of brands and retailers, which means we’ll see fewer NFC marketing campaigns and less interest in rolling out new Point of Sale equipment. As a result, consumers won’t see as many references to NFC and won’t have as many opportunities to make NFC payments.

The total value of NFC retail transactions worldwide is now expected to reach $110 billion in 2017, down from the previous forecast of $180 billion, although the proportion of NFC-enabled smartphones in 2017 will be only be slightly below previous estimates.

North America and Western Europe will see the biggest impact; transaction values in these regions are now expected to show a ‘two year lag’ on previous forecasts. Retail transactions in Japan and Korea aren’t expected to see any significant impact from the decision.

Dr Windsor Holden, research director at Juniper Research, said “While many vendors have introduced NFC-enabled smartphones, Apple’s decision is a significant blow for the technology, particularly given its previous successes in educating the wider public about new mobile services. Without their support, it will be even more difficult to persuade consumers – and retailers – to embrace what amounts to a wholly new means of payment.”

[Whitepaper; Report]

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