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Monday, December 8, 2014

Predictions for 2015: operators face churn, the SIM loses its grip, and cloud and VoLTE finally arrive

Mark Windle of OpenCloud writes:

In 2014, operators focussed on rolling out LTE, but some have lost sight of the bigger picture. 2015 will see traditional telecoms services delivered over multiple access technologies, of which LTE is just a part. As next year fast approaches, our predictions take a step back and look at how the industry will adapt to the changing landscape.

Hyper-churn hits Europe

Continued economic pressure on consumers’ wallets will leave many coming to the end of their contract happy with their current phone and with the freedom to hunt for the best deal on a SIM-only contract. Consequently many operators will find their customers leaving in search of a better deal. Without the revenue from new handset hire-purchase sales, operators will depend more on revenues from telephony (voice and video calling) services

In order to differentiate effectively, operators must equip themselves to start innovating in voice and video communication services. Operators that have the ability to continually offer exciting, relevant services to their customers will maintain better margins than those whose only answer is to enter a price war.

The SIM card loses its grip

An increasing number of urban Wi-Fi deployments are offering acceptable mobile coverage to consumers, without the need for cellular operators. Furthermore, a recent report by Analysys Mason has revealed that the 81% of smartphone traffic is carried over fixed-line networks, meaning that most of us will connect to a Wi-Fi network when we can.

Pay as you go consumers and those with small data bundles will increasingly use non-cellular connectivity and communication services, falling back to cellular only as a last resort. Whilst the SIM card will not become obsolete any time soon, it is slowly beginning to lose its hold on the market.

VoLTE arrives – but no one (outside the industry) really cares

Within the industry, VoLTE is big news. However, subscribers are unlikely to notice its introduction: the technology works behind the same familiar dialler. And if they do notice (high-definition audio, or faster set-up) they’re not really going to care: we’ve all got used to incremental improvements, and HD voice has been available on some OTT services for a while. To get a “Wow”, substantial innovation beyond the standard is needed in the service itself.

Same service, different access

In 2015, tradition telecoms operators will accelerate the decoupling of their service and access divisions. In doing this, operators will be able to deliver any communication service over cellular, IP or Wi-Fi, based on a customers’ preference. The separation will allow them to focus on service innovation, similar to competing over-the-top service providers.

Meanwhile, access technology will horizontally integrate: mobile, fixed-line, Wi-Fi all coming together to offer complete and cost-effective connectivity packages. This year we’ve seen BT, EE and Sky announce plans for quad-play offerings, delivering mobile, broadband and television to their customers. This trend will continue next year through partnerships, mergers and acquisitions.

And finally...

We’re pretty sure someone will host a 6G conference before 5G even happens, and we’ll all shrug it off and move on, like this year when Windows decided that 10 was nice round number compared to 9.

Mark Windle is head of marketing at OpenCloud, a UK-based company that provides software products for network operators and MVNOs.
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Opinion Articles

Why a mobile TV service is just like a zombie

Mark Bridge writes:

Here in the UK, we’re struggling a bit with mobile TV. Which made me wonder what the problem really was. Well, after a long evening with the finest stilton and the cheapest port, the answer came to me in a dream. A mobile TV service is just like the lurching, drooling nightmare creatures that appear in every zombie film. And once consumers understand zombies, they’ll understand the problems with mobile TV. Let me explain.

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Selling your way out of a recession? Of course you can!

Iain Graham writes:

Everybody these days (apart from a lucky few!) is suffering from a lack of business or reduced sales due to the current 'downturn in the economic climate'. In my opinion, this is the time when sales people should stand up and be counted!

No, I don't mean the hard nosed, foot in the door double-glazing, second-hand car or mobile phone types (no offence!), I mean EVERYONE! Selling is a concept as much as it is a profession.

Author: The Fonecast
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Mobile & Contactless Payments

James Rosewell offers his opinion on the current state of mobile and contactless payments.

The banking and mobile industries have big plans for Near Field Communication (NFC) as the mobile payment mechanism of the future. Barclaycard has been leading the way from the credit card sector forming a partnership with Orange, having previously worked with O2, and running a catchy TV advert prompting contactless cards using VISA’s paywave system.

However the reality of NFC payments appears a lot further away. The Point of Sale (POS) technology appears to be badly deployed by some of the first-phase retailers mainly made up of low-value high-volume businesses like coffee shops, fast food outlets and newsagents.

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Insecure Mobile Browsers

James Rosewell writes: I note with interest Barclays mobile on-line banking home page extolling the safety of mobile banking whilst claiming it’s as secure as their non-mobile equivalent. This is on the same page that recommends customers use Opera Mini to access Barclays mobile on-line banking.

Yet following the link to the operamini.com web site and looking at the help section we can read Opera’s answer to the question “Is there any end-to-end security between my handset and — for example — paypal.com or my bank?” and the answer is “No. If you need full end-to-end encryption, you should use a full Web browser such as Opera Mobile.”

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Reviewing our 2015 mobile industry predictions... and looking forward to 2016

Podcast - 15th January 2016

Iain Graham, James Rosewell and Mark Bridge return to review their mobile industry predictions from last year. Which mergers, partnerships and developments did they forecast correctly... and which didn’t work out as planned?

Later in the programme, the team anticipates some of the topics that will be hitting the headlines during 2016.

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Podcast from Mobile World Congress 2015

Podcast - 6th March 2015

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Looking back at February: from security scares to multiple MVNOs

Podcast - 27th February 2015

We're taking a look back at the biggest mobile industry news stories from February 2015, including allegations that the UK's security service tried to breach SIM card security by hacking into one of the world's biggest SIM producers.

We also talk about the planned BT and EE merger, the creation of two new UK virtual networks, some acquisitions in the mobile payment arena and a new Ubuntu smartphone.

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Interview with Chris Millington of Doro about mobile retailing, wearables and technology for older consumers

Podcast - 24th February 2015

In today's programme Mark Bridge talks to Chris Millington, who's Managing Director for Doro UK and Ireland.

They discuss the state of mobile retailing in the UK, the future of wearable devices and - as you might expect - smartphones for seniors.

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A month of mobile: O2 counts on 3, Microsoft counts to 10 and Apple counts its profits

Podcast - 30th January 2015

We're back with a month of mobile industry news, including takeover talks and takeover rumours. O2 and Three are said to be discussing a merger... but is there any truth in the suggestions that BlackBerry could be up for grabs?

We also discuss Apple's record-breaking quarterly figures, the highlights of CES and the launch of Microsoft Windows 10, as well as saying farewell to the current version of Google Glass.

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