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Monday, December 8, 2014

Predictions for 2015: operators face churn, the SIM loses its grip, and cloud and VoLTE finally arrive

Mark Windle of OpenCloud writes:

In 2014, operators focussed on rolling out LTE, but some have lost sight of the bigger picture. 2015 will see traditional telecoms services delivered over multiple access technologies, of which LTE is just a part. As next year fast approaches, our predictions take a step back and look at how the industry will adapt to the changing landscape.

Hyper-churn hits Europe

Continued economic pressure on consumers’ wallets will leave many coming to the end of their contract happy with their current phone and with the freedom to hunt for the best deal on a SIM-only contract. Consequently many operators will find their customers leaving in search of a better deal. Without the revenue from new handset hire-purchase sales, operators will depend more on revenues from telephony (voice and video calling) services

In order to differentiate effectively, operators must equip themselves to start innovating in voice and video communication services. Operators that have the ability to continually offer exciting, relevant services to their customers will maintain better margins than those whose only answer is to enter a price war.

The SIM card loses its grip

An increasing number of urban Wi-Fi deployments are offering acceptable mobile coverage to consumers, without the need for cellular operators. Furthermore, a recent report by Analysys Mason has revealed that the 81% of smartphone traffic is carried over fixed-line networks, meaning that most of us will connect to a Wi-Fi network when we can.

Pay as you go consumers and those with small data bundles will increasingly use non-cellular connectivity and communication services, falling back to cellular only as a last resort. Whilst the SIM card will not become obsolete any time soon, it is slowly beginning to lose its hold on the market.

VoLTE arrives – but no one (outside the industry) really cares

Within the industry, VoLTE is big news. However, subscribers are unlikely to notice its introduction: the technology works behind the same familiar dialler. And if they do notice (high-definition audio, or faster set-up) they’re not really going to care: we’ve all got used to incremental improvements, and HD voice has been available on some OTT services for a while. To get a “Wow”, substantial innovation beyond the standard is needed in the service itself.

Same service, different access

In 2015, tradition telecoms operators will accelerate the decoupling of their service and access divisions. In doing this, operators will be able to deliver any communication service over cellular, IP or Wi-Fi, based on a customers’ preference. The separation will allow them to focus on service innovation, similar to competing over-the-top service providers.

Meanwhile, access technology will horizontally integrate: mobile, fixed-line, Wi-Fi all coming together to offer complete and cost-effective connectivity packages. This year we’ve seen BT, EE and Sky announce plans for quad-play offerings, delivering mobile, broadband and television to their customers. This trend will continue next year through partnerships, mergers and acquisitions.

And finally...

We’re pretty sure someone will host a 6G conference before 5G even happens, and we’ll all shrug it off and move on, like this year when Windows decided that 10 was nice round number compared to 9.

Mark Windle is head of marketing at OpenCloud, a UK-based company that provides software products for network operators and MVNOs.
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Opinion Articles

Podcast transcript: O2 counts on 3, Microsoft counts to 10 and Apple counts its profits

Here’s an edited transcript of our new monthly podcast, broadcast on 30th January 2015.

[Iain Graham]: Hello, it's Friday 30th January 2015. Welcome to this month's edition of The Fonecast. That’s right, you heard correctly: we’ve temporarily moved to a monthly format. If you’d like to join 51Degrees in sponsoring the podcast and returning us to weekly programmes, please get in touch via our website. Now, on with the show.

Author: The Fonecast
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The secret of Apple's success

Mark Bridge writes:

What’s the secret of Apple’s success? That’s the question I was asked earlier this week by LBC radio during a report on Apple’s impressive iPhone sales and its record quarterly results.

So here are six reasons I think Apple is doing so well at the moment.

Author: The Fonecast
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BlackBerry Classic isn't a blast from the past... it's a signpost to the Dark Ages

Mark Bridge writes:

If you listen to this week’s edition of The Fonecast - in which we predict what’ll be happening in the mobile telecoms industry during 2015 - you’ll hear James Rosewell say that BlackBerry’s handset business is doomed. Well, actually that’s not quite true.

Author: The Fonecast
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Predictions for Connected Homes in 2015

Predictions for Connected Homes in 2015

Jon Carter of Deutsche Telekom has provided us with his ‘Connected Home’ predictions for 2015:

Connected home products and services rely on different communication standards, be it ZigBee, HomeMatic or Z-Wave. Only platforms which both handle established standards and are able to learn new protocols will hold their ground in the market in 2015. Customers don’t want to be limited in their product choices or care about compatibility issues. Integrating any device into a connected home setup needs to be smooth and simple.

Author: The Fonecast
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Predictions for 2015: operators face churn, the SIM loses its grip, and cloud and VoLTE finally arrive

Mark Windle of OpenCloud writes:

In 2014, operators focussed on rolling out LTE, but some have lost sight of the bigger picture. 2015 will see traditional telecoms services delivered over multiple access technologies, of which LTE is just a part. As next year fast approaches, our predictions take a step back and look at how the industry will adapt to the changing landscape.

Author: The Fonecast
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Recent Podcasts

Reviewing our 2015 mobile industry predictions... and looking forward to 2016

Podcast - 15th January 2016

Iain Graham, James Rosewell and Mark Bridge return to review their mobile industry predictions from last year. Which mergers, partnerships and developments did they forecast correctly... and which didn’t work out as planned?

Later in the programme, the team anticipates some of the topics that will be hitting the headlines during 2016.

Author: The Fonecast
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Podcast from Mobile World Congress 2015

Podcast - 6th March 2015

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Looking back at February: from security scares to multiple MVNOs

Podcast - 27th February 2015

We're taking a look back at the biggest mobile industry news stories from February 2015, including allegations that the UK's security service tried to breach SIM card security by hacking into one of the world's biggest SIM producers.

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Author: The Fonecast
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Interview with Chris Millington of Doro about mobile retailing, wearables and technology for older consumers

Podcast - 24th February 2015

In today's programme Mark Bridge talks to Chris Millington, who's Managing Director for Doro UK and Ireland.

They discuss the state of mobile retailing in the UK, the future of wearable devices and - as you might expect - smartphones for seniors.

Author: The Fonecast
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A month of mobile: O2 counts on 3, Microsoft counts to 10 and Apple counts its profits

Podcast - 30th January 2015

We're back with a month of mobile industry news, including takeover talks and takeover rumours. O2 and Three are said to be discussing a merger... but is there any truth in the suggestions that BlackBerry could be up for grabs?

We also discuss Apple's record-breaking quarterly figures, the highlights of CES and the launch of Microsoft Windows 10, as well as saying farewell to the current version of Google Glass.

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