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Friday, December 21, 2012

Mobile phone industry predictions for 2013

Iain Graham, James Rosewell and Mark Bridge look into the future

Mark Bridge writes:

Predicting the future is easy. Making accurate predictions is more of a challenge. In our final podcast of 2012 we've provided a forecast for the mobile telecoms industry in 2013 - and we've also looked back at last year's expectations.

So... what do the three of us at TheFonecast.com expect from mobile phones and wireless technology next year?

James started with an optimistic outlook for BlackBerry. He reckons the delay to the new BlackBerry 10 platform should be seen as an indication of RIM's determination to get things right before launch.

I was less positive about the prospects for Ericsson and Nokia in 2013, although James pointed out that the growth of Windows Phone 8 would help Nokia. In fact, he expects Microsoft's mobile market share to double in the next twelve months.

Both Iain and James anticipated the end of the SMS boom; Iain blaming rival messaging services whilst James said spam was causing a loss of perceived value.

Iain predicted mobile security becoming increasingly important to users but James wasn't so sure consumer behaviour would change much.

Network mergers were ruled out, new 4G networks were expected and a confident stock market was likely to encourage the industry.

Finally, an Amazon phone seems to be on the cards for 2013, new technology could prompt some different smartphone form factors... and I wondered whether Rovio would be bought by a big Hollywood animator.

Will any of this come true?  Well, you can check our track record from last year's forecasts and hear all of this year's predictions in our special podcast. Listen to the programme on our website audio player, via iTunes, by using our RSS feed or by downloading the mp3 file directly.

Discover the latest mobile industry headlines as they happen by following us on Twitter, via RSS or on our Facebook page. If you prefer updates by email, please sign up for our free weekly newsletter using the Register link in the top right-hand corner of our website.
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1 comments on article "Mobile phone industry predictions for 2013"

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Mark Luthar

1/15/2013 12:15 PM

This year is going to be very important for smartphone field because this year a new concept is launching which is "phablets". let's see what happens !!!!

Samsung Galaxy S3 PAYG

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Opinion Articles

A Sure Signal from Vodafone

Mark Bridge writes:

Today I've been using my mobile phone at home. For many people that’s not an unusual thing to do – but it is for me because, around here, coverage indoors isn’t particularly good. Downstairs it’s previously been non-existent. But this morning everything changed.

Author: The Fonecast
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Physician uses cell phones to bring health care to the poor

Natalia Ardanza of voanews.com writes:

In Africa there is another use for mobile phones. Public Health workers in Kenya are now using mobile phones to gather health information from patients in remote areas and upload it to the internet for instant analysis at distant centers. And it is all happening thanks to Dr Joel Selanikio.

Author: The Fonecast
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Making dumb touchscreen phones was a smart move

Mark Bridge writes:

I remember a report from last year that said ‘non-smart’ touchscreen handsets – generally those without a popular operating system – would be bad news for mobile operators.

Conventional touchscreen smartphones tended to result in higher-than-average ARPU thanks to their early-adopting tech-loving users, their web-friendly browsers, their email programs, their app-friendly operating systems and their fast 3G connectivity. However, dumber touchscreen devices – those with a manufacturer’s own proprietary OS and perhaps a clumsier browser – could generate 23% less ARPU than smarter phones. So, if touchscreen dumbphones weren’t good for networks… and weren’t really good for consumers either… manufacturers wouldn’t really bother with them. Right?

Author: The Fonecast
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"Hello Nexus One" I say...

James Rosewell writes:

Mark’s been encouraging me to write an opinion piece on the Nexus One for the last few days and I’m finally putting fingers to keyboard to share my experiences. It’s taken so long because this phone has so many features. On a positive note I could go into details about the gorgeous screen, the Android Marketplace that will out-sell Apple’s over the next 18 months, the built-in satellite navigation service and the speedy processor that makes everything run smoothly in real time. Or on a less positive note, the touch screen keyboard that sucks (think carefully about this if you’re a heavy texter or emailer, it’s even worse than the original iPhone), the lack of ActiveSync for Calendars and Tasks, no support for WMA music files or the clunky zoom functions on the web browser.

However I’m going to focus on voice dictation. Nexus One is the first phone I’ve used with this feature.

Author: The Fonecast
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The Amazon Kindle prepares to fight the Apple iPhone and Tablet

Mark Bridge writes:

Here’s a curious thing. Firstly, Amazon creates the Kindle. It starts selling the Kindle in the USA with a mobile deal that lets users download electronic books and newspapers wherever they are. Then it starts selling the Kindle to us in the UK, although – hang on a moment – it’s not talking about a UK mobile deal. Instead it still seems to be ‘roaming’ from the AT&T network. Next comes the larger-screen Kindle DX – also roaming away when it reaches our shores. And now Amazon is talking about third-party downloadable applications for the Kindle. Yes, a mobile device with downloadable apps. Hold that thought; I’ll be returning to it.

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