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Friday, December 21, 2012

Windows Phone expected to be the fastest-growing mobile OS in the next 5 years

A new research report from Analysys Mason predicts that Windows Phone will become the fastest-growing smartphone operating system in the next five years. However, it will still only have a single-digit percentage share of the smartphone market in 2017.

Last year, Microsoft’s Windows Phone OS was shipped in 11 million devices. In 2017 this figure is expected to reach 136 million units; approximately the same number of Apple devices shipped in 2012. It’ll mean that Windows smartphones account for 9% of the world’s smartphone shipments in 2017, compared to 23% for Apple.

Android smartphone shipments are expected to account for 58% of the market next year and are then predicted to stay at that level for the next four years.

Ronan de Renesse, the report’s author and Principal Analyst for the Mobile Broadband and Devices research programme at Analysys Mason, said “Having a third significant OS player like Windows in the smartphone market would benefit mobile operators because it would reduce Apple’s and Google’s control over the market. It would also encourage subscribers to move from one OS to another, as well as improve operators’ negotiating position in smartphone retail.”

Overall, the number of smartphone shipments is forecast to increase from 700 million this year (41.2% of total mobile phone shipments) to 1.37 billion by the end of 2017 (a 70% share of shipments). The report says handset vendors’ share of smartphone shipments will be volatile as brands with their own content/device ecosystems or with a strong presence in emerging markets will maintain or increase their market share at the expense of others.

[Report]

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Opinion Articles

Carnival of the Mobilists #234

Mark Bridge writes:

Welcome to TheFonecast.com for this week’s Carnival of the Mobilists, an itinerant online publication that contains the best mobile-focussed writing from the previous seven days.

The summer holidays may have reduced the quantity of online commentary for Carnival #234… but the quality remains unaffected.

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Everything you need to know about smart metering in the UK

In recent months there’s been a lot of talk about smart metering and the wider subject of machine-to-machine communications. With well over 100% penetration of mobile phones in the UK, the promise of machines exchanging information over the mobile network offers operators a new opportunity for growth.

To explain more about the technology and the potential, we invited Ross Catley to join us for this week’s edition of The Fonecast. Ross has worked in the utility & telecommunications industries and is now a consultant who advises on smart metering.

Here’s an edited transcript of our interview.

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Wholesale Application Community (WAC) – Mobile Networks Respond to Apple

James Rosewell writes:

Mobile network operators have responded en-masse to the success of Apple’s App Store. Apple should be very concerned. The Wholesale Application Community (WAC) has been formed as a corporate entity today with representation from AT&T, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, France Telecom, GSMA, KT Corporation, NTT DOCOMO, SK Telecom, Smart Communications, SOFTBANK MOBILE Corp., Telecom Italia, Telefónica, Telekom Austria Group, Telenor, Verizon and Vodafone. Not many major Mobile Network Operators (MNO) are missing from the list.

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Apple's quarterly results: bloodbath or brilliance?

Mark Bridge writes:

They were a proud race. Proud of their individuality. Proud of the simple yet high-tech environment they inhabited.

But their population wasn’t growing as quickly as it had. They weren’t dying out – far from it, because they were committed to the cause – but there weren’t as many bright new faces as there’d been before. And now the Others were moving closer.

Yes, they’d done their best to resist the Others. They’d tried moving into new areas; not running away but expanding. It seemed to work. A new generation – a new race, some said – had been born. Different, yet the same. So why did they still feel as though the Others were getting dangerously close?

That’s not the opening of the worst science-fiction novel of all time. It’s the place where some people think Apple finds itself at the moment.

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Why Facebook is a friend of anonymity

Mark Bridge writes:

Mention 'anonymity' to anyone these days and it's pretty likely they'll start talking about Facebook. Maybe Google Street View, maybe RF chips in passports... but probably Facebook.

This 'over sharing' of personal information is a far cry from the situation a few years ago. Once, no-one on the internet really admitted who they were. That New Yorker cartoon - "Nobody knows you're a dog" - wasn't far off the truth. You couldn't tell a dungeonmaster from a librarian when they were online.

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Recent Podcasts

Reviewing our 2015 mobile industry predictions... and looking forward to 2016

Podcast - 15th January 2016

Iain Graham, James Rosewell and Mark Bridge return to review their mobile industry predictions from last year. Which mergers, partnerships and developments did they forecast correctly... and which didn’t work out as planned?

Later in the programme, the team anticipates some of the topics that will be hitting the headlines during 2016.

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Podcast from Mobile World Congress 2015

Podcast - 6th March 2015

Mark Bridge learns about the mobile technology trends at Mobile World Congress 2015 by chatting to James Rosewell of 51Degrees, Dr Kevin Curran from the IEEE and Chris Millington of Doro.

They talk about wearable devices, wireless charging, mobile operating systems and much more... including some of their favourite products from the exhibition.

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Looking back at February: from security scares to multiple MVNOs

Podcast - 27th February 2015

We're taking a look back at the biggest mobile industry news stories from February 2015, including allegations that the UK's security service tried to breach SIM card security by hacking into one of the world's biggest SIM producers.

We also talk about the planned BT and EE merger, the creation of two new UK virtual networks, some acquisitions in the mobile payment arena and a new Ubuntu smartphone.

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Interview with Chris Millington of Doro about mobile retailing, wearables and technology for older consumers

Podcast - 24th February 2015

In today's programme Mark Bridge talks to Chris Millington, who's Managing Director for Doro UK and Ireland.

They discuss the state of mobile retailing in the UK, the future of wearable devices and - as you might expect - smartphones for seniors.

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A month of mobile: O2 counts on 3, Microsoft counts to 10 and Apple counts its profits

Podcast - 30th January 2015

We're back with a month of mobile industry news, including takeover talks and takeover rumours. O2 and Three are said to be discussing a merger... but is there any truth in the suggestions that BlackBerry could be up for grabs?

We also discuss Apple's record-breaking quarterly figures, the highlights of CES and the launch of Microsoft Windows 10, as well as saying farewell to the current version of Google Glass.

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