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Friday, December 21, 2012

Mobile phone industry predictions for 2013

Iain Graham, James Rosewell and Mark Bridge look into the future

Mark Bridge writes:

Predicting the future is easy. Making accurate predictions is more of a challenge. In our final podcast of 2012 we've provided a forecast for the mobile telecoms industry in 2013 - and we've also looked back at last year's expectations.

So... what do the three of us at TheFonecast.com expect from mobile phones and wireless technology next year?

James started with an optimistic outlook for BlackBerry. He reckons the delay to the new BlackBerry 10 platform should be seen as an indication of RIM's determination to get things right before launch.

I was less positive about the prospects for Ericsson and Nokia in 2013, although James pointed out that the growth of Windows Phone 8 would help Nokia. In fact, he expects Microsoft's mobile market share to double in the next twelve months.

Both Iain and James anticipated the end of the SMS boom; Iain blaming rival messaging services whilst James said spam was causing a loss of perceived value.

Iain predicted mobile security becoming increasingly important to users but James wasn't so sure consumer behaviour would change much.

Network mergers were ruled out, new 4G networks were expected and a confident stock market was likely to encourage the industry.

Finally, an Amazon phone seems to be on the cards for 2013, new technology could prompt some different smartphone form factors... and I wondered whether Rovio would be bought by a big Hollywood animator.

Will any of this come true?  Well, you can check our track record from last year's forecasts and hear all of this year's predictions in our special podcast. Listen to the programme on our website audio player, via iTunes, by using our RSS feed or by downloading the mp3 file directly.

Discover the latest mobile industry headlines as they happen by following us on Twitter, via RSS or on our Facebook page. If you prefer updates by email, please sign up for our free weekly newsletter using the Register link in the top right-hand corner of our website.
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1 comments on article "Mobile phone industry predictions for 2013"

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Mark Luthar

1/15/2013 12:15 PM

This year is going to be very important for smartphone field because this year a new concept is launching which is "phablets". let's see what happens !!!!

Samsung Galaxy S3 PAYG

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Opinion Articles

giffgaff has an official voice worth listening to

Mark Bridge writes:

Yesterday I spotted a new blog page from O2-supported MVNO giffgaff. The company’s head of digital marketing Rob Gotlieb announced the finished version of a promotional film – and mentioned the official voice of giffgaff, voiceover artist Tom Oldham (who, interestingly, was also the voice on Vodafone ads at one point). And for a moment I thought “Official voice?  You what?”

Author: The Fonecast
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Mobiles go meddling in medicine

Mark Bridge writes:

“Okay, Mr Bridge, just relax. This won’t hurt a bit. I just need to… oh, hold on a moment, my phone’s crashed. I’ll just pop the battery out and we can start again.”

Some years ago I read an article in Fast Company magazine. Entitled “They Write the Right Stuff”, it explained how NASA’s software engineers couldn’t afford to make errors because any mistakes were likely to kill their colleagues.

That need to check, double-check and then check again was also one of the reasons the space agency ended up looking on eBay for tried-and-tested obsolete components. But now things seem to be swinging towards the opposite end of the scale.

Author: The Fonecast
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I want a mobile wallet - and I want it NOW!

Mark Bridge writes:

A few months ago James wrote about the slow adoption of mobile and contactless payments in the UK. Now we hear that Kenya’s M-PESA mobile money transfer service has arrived here. Yes, m-payments are finally going mainstream in the United Kingdom. Well, sort of. Well, alright, not at all really. What’s happened is that people in the UK are now able to send money to M-PESA users in Kenya. But what about the progress of mobile payments in the UK?

Author: The Fonecast
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Which mobile operating system will top the charts at Christmas?

James Rosewell writes:

It seems to be accepted that the Apple iPhone will be the top selling mobile phone this Christmas now it’s available on almost every UK network. The more interesting question is which handsets will hold the number 2 to 5 positions - and what operating system will they be running when the smartphone scores are announced in the new year?

Microsoft announced Windows Phone last week and I commented on the importance of persuading their heartland fans to move from iPhone and other platforms to Windows Phone. Disappointingly, finding a mobile retailer willing to sell a Windows Phone is not easy at the moment. Orange tell me they’ve withdrawn the one model they were going to offer from Toshiba. Vodafone didn’t even know what a Windows Phone was.

Author: The Fonecast
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Life is toooo complicated!

Iain Graham writes:

I have just bought (well, been given) a new mobile phone!  It, of course, cost me nothing, because we still haven't learnt in this industry, but it came with the now obligatory, shrink-wrapped, 140-page instruction manual on how to use it!!  A perfect cure for insomnia!  I read the opening page or two and it might as well have been written in Serbo-Croatian for all the sense it made to me!!  (I then realised it WAS written in Serbo-Croatian and so I turned to the correct language section) and it was just as incomprehensible!

Even worse, the manufacturers (who are too tight to pay for the printing in the name of 'going green') put the instruction manual on a CD!!

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